[MAFIA] SIMPLE MAFIA FOR NORMAL PEOPLE

Posts

(but I'm still emotionally invested in the idea so I'm not going to say I'm wrong even though I am probably haRUMPHx2)
Jeroen_Sol
Oh, what's that? Time ran out? How very sad.
3057
Alright, IF has not counterclaimed, so psy's jailer claim must be legit. So the only possibility for Gourd not being scum is scum withholding from nightkill, as Gourd's been arguing. I'm a little less hotheaded now that I've slept and more willing to actually consider that.

If Gourd is town, that leaves two out of demon, LockeZ, IF.

This day phase, LockeZ has seemed very town to me. I trust him the most of the three.

That would make the scumteam IF/demon.

Psy has argued that demon's confusion at the beginning of day 1 can only be a scum ploy if I'm also scum. But even though I'm not, I think it could still be a scum ploy, if demon just acted on his own. He didn't need a scum partner to give himself town cred by messing up.

But that seems pretty unlikely to me. The mess up seemed legit then and rereading it, it still does now.

Much more likely to me is Gourd/IF. Especially the fact that they now suddenly want to kill each other even though they've had each other pegged as town all game feels like last ditch bussing to me.
@IF: Who do you think is scumteam? You listed a couple names but what's most likely? And why do you think there was no nightkill?

@Jero: Why do you think a IF/demon scumteam would not submit a kill?
Jeroen_Sol
Oh, what's that? Time ran out? How very sad.
3057
I was going to say scumteam knew that a jailer exists. So withholding from NK would implicate whomever the jailer jailed, leading to a potential mislynch and win for scum.
But I just realized that there was a 40% chance for jailer to randomly jail correctly, which would blow that whole plan to smithereens. You're right, that seems far too risky of a ploy.

Then the only thing I can think of is to keep the number of mislynch targets higher. But even then, mislynching is much easier at LYLO than at MYLO. At MYLO, two townies must vote the same other townie for scum to quickhammer, whereas at LYLO, any misvote immediately allows scum to quickhammer.
Should we gamble on the gourd/if team then? I'm not going to dwell on my argument last night because I'm probably wrong if the majority thinks so. Jer makes an excellent point too, and I don't see why a kill would be withheld either. I just can't see not targeting either jer or psy at this point given the current situation.

The risk seems too high to target anyone else.
That post came out odd as I reread it. It meant to read as I can't see scum not targeting psy or jer last night.

The last sentence was meant to read as it seems too risky for us to lynch anyone but gourd tonight.
No, gourd needs to die today for sure, but I'd like to get things settled today before I'm inevitably dead tomorrow. If Gourd is roleblocker, I'll be jailing whoever I think is second scum so that they can be executed/vindicated tomorrow. I can't really come to a conclusion with IF, well, posting.
Jeroen_Sol
Oh, what's that? Time ran out? How very sad.
3057
Is there anything we can discuss before IF shows up again? I feel like we're just starting to repeat ourselves at this point.
Not really. He basically floated six different scumteams, committed to none of them, and then completely missed the whole "Gourd jailed -> no nightkill" thing.
Welp glad I had no reason to feel bad about getting home really late and not posting~

author=psy_wombats
No, gourd needs to die today for sure, but I'd like to get things settled today before I'm inevitably dead tomorrow. If Gourd is roleblocker, I'll be jailing whoever I think is second scum so that they can be executed/vindicated tomorrow. I can't really come to a conclusion with IF, well, posting.

Did I mention that I disagree? XD
author=Jeroen_Sol
Alright, IF has not counterclaimed, so psy's jailer claim must be legit. So the only possibility for Gourd not being scum is scum withholding from nightkill, as Gourd's been arguing. I'm a little less hotheaded now that I've slept and more willing to actually consider that.

Same >.< Being stubborn is a terrible charater trait sometimes. I feel like there's a name for the phenomena where you buckle down on something even though it's actually just hurting you though I forget its name at the moment.

author=Jeroen_Sol
The mess up seemed legit then and rereading it, it still does now.

Much more likely to me is Gourd/IF. Especially the fact that they now suddenly want to kill each other even though they've had each other pegged as town all game feels like last ditch bussing to me.

Or when I made my scum list with IF on it (for reasons explained), IF didn't like it because he's a scumlord. Just saying there are other angles to consider here that don't result in a loss for town. XD
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5048
20 hours left now. At some point people are going to have to vote, and it should probably start soon because of time zones. InfectionFiles is likely to continue his pattern of doing and saying nothing, but if he is actually town then hopefully he reads everything and forms an opinion before the end of the day.

...Well, I guess we don't HAVE to vote. If we lynch nobody today, we're at LYLO tomorrow. If we lynch the wrong person today, we lose. But we SHOULD vote. I'd much rather lynch the right person and then be at 3v1 tomorrow. LYLO with two scum alive is not a fun time.

And at this point I'm pretty confident about Gourd. IF is a reasonable second member, but right now I'd much rather lynch the person who actually seems scummy than the person who is simply left over by default.
author=LockeZ
...Well, I guess we don't HAVE to vote. If we lynch nobody today, we're at LYLO tomorrow. If we lynch the wrong person today, we lose. But we SHOULD vote. I'd much rather lynch the right person and then be at 3v1 tomorrow. LYLO with two scum alive is not a fun time.

Also lynching nobody is kinda dragging it out. Most probably have their mind made up by now plus activity is sparse.
#Lynch IF by the way since I feel it's likely he's one of the scum (and if I get home late again I'd rather have voted than not).
Yeah it kind of seems unlikely we'll get anything out of IF today and if Gourd isn't scum then this whole day's been a waste of time because it's game over tonight. By the way, I think the only scumteam that'd pass on a nightkill would have Jero on it and I'd be waay more willing to listen to Gourd if that was his conclusion and not IF/Jero with an emphasis on IF. If scumteam is like Jero/demon or LockeZ/IF or something then good game, I'm an idiot.

#lynch Gourd_Clae

Assuming we have another day tomorrow, I think it's unlikely that the last scum is IF. I think without my saying something now, he'd be daykilled tomorrow, and so Gourd/IF would be trying hard today to get him in the clear. Gourd voting against IF and IF waffling around is not how to accomplish that, and encouraging the day to end now is /definitely/ not how to accomplish that. Oh and if IF is scum then I think he's pulling intentional lurker-scum strategy and so if he wins with it, we can all yell at him for being lame.

I'd think last scum would be Jero. He expresses no opinion about my claim right after I post it, but then once it's clear Gourd is going down, he starts fighting with Gourd for a whole page about setup. Like, there's not really much point to engage with known scum except to force out their opinions. And Gourd put Jero right in the goldilocks "probably scum but only if you press me about it" category, which I think is more likely than claiming he's innocent or voting against him outright. That plus Jero's cancellation d1 convinces me.



So for tonight, if if turns out Gourd is roleblocker: I'll chuck Jero in jail again. Then if someone dies he's in the clear. If not, then we kill him and repeat the process if needed. If Gourd isn't roleblocker then I'm pretty much vanilla at this point and likely dead.
@LockeZ: Haha, oh yeah, I remember that game. If you remember there too, my strategy was to grill Kloe for 5 or 10 posts after it was clear she was dead and then pin last scum on lurker Tung. I think the same stuff is up this game.
LockeZ
I'd really like to get rid of LockeZ. His play style is way too unpredictable. He's always like this too. If he ran a country, he'd just kill and imprison people at random until crime stopped.
5048
I still think Jeroen + Gourd is really unlikely because of the votes on day one. You seem to think it was intentional misdirection, but it just seems too dangerous, since day one bandwagons often turn into lynches even if there's no reason for them. And it would be especially dangerous for them to put suspicion on each-other if the scum at that point didn't even know if there was a cop or not.

But I guess we'll know for sure in the morning, if we survive. If you clear Jeroen then it looks like we'll be going after IF. I would rather you jail IF personally though since he's the wildcard. Everyone else I can at least kind of read.
Jeroen_Sol
Oh, what's that? Time ran out? How very sad.
3057
Uh, what? My opinion on claims is always: Assume they're true unless they're counterclaimed.

In my second post of the day, which was written before your claim but got ninja'd, I already expressed wanting to kill Gourd today.
In my third post of the day, written right after posting my second and seeing your claim, I addressed it.

Gourd wanting to end the day quickly before IF gets in here is definitely unsettling to me. I'm going to have to do some more rereading tonight, but other than IF, I really don't know who his partner would be.

Anyway, I agree with Psy's plan. Scum could withhold nightkill tonight to frame me and force my mislynch, but if they do so, we won't lose yet, and be at 2v1 instead.

I've done some reading up on mutual roleblocks in case Gourd is a goon, because CAVE hasn't said anything, but the only thing I've found is that it's ambiguous and there's no real consensus. https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Roleblocker#Multiple_and_Mutual_Roleblocks
Suppose a Town Roleblocker and a Mafia Roleblocker target each other at Night. Who is Roleblocked?
Suppose that the Mafia Roleblocker in this example is also performing the Mafia kill. Does the kill succeed?
Suppose that a Tracker investigates the Town Roleblocker in this example. What result does the Tracker get?
Most moderators opt for arbitrary tie-breakers in ambiguous situations like these.


So if Gourd is goon, then I think you should try jailing IF just in case it does prevent the nightkill, but if you so heavily suspect me and want to jail me instead that's also fair, I guess.

But if a nightkill then does happen we can't use that to confirm either me or IF, which is unfortunate.

Also let's agree right now there will be no early-day voting on any future days.

I'd have to look up everyone's timezones to be sure, but I feel like Gourd would have been quickhammered by demon/IF by now if he were town. Unless Locke is scum, which once again, I find unlikely.

#Lynch Gourd_Clae
Jeroen_Sol
Oh, what's that? Time ran out? How very sad.
3057
Those first few paragraphs of mine were @Psy, btw.
Jeroen_Sol
Oh, what's that? Time ran out? How very sad.
3057
I'd also rather have IF jailed.