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[Game Over] Cheesecake Mafia

Yes. Odd, in the pm you received, go back and check it line by line. Do there appear to be any direct quotes that Ratty (or anyone really) said the other day in slack? I don't have a transcript of that conversation handy, unfortunately. If piano has one, that'd be really useful. You're doing fine, Odd.

@Frogge I believe IF is the only vote on me.

oh and @IF if you want me to clear things up, is your vote still on me because I'm playing differently this game as opposed to when I was scum? (funnily enough the opposite conclusion from ratty)

[Game Over] Cheesecake Mafia

Fair enough. I've never played with Marrend so I assumed it was his MO.

I dunno, Frogge, if people wanted to earnestly express their sentiments to Odd or Gourd, I think they'd just do it, not do it semi-anonymously in the context of Kloe's Cheesecake Mafia. It'd be a waste of a power really, and there's so many fun things to do with that power.

[Game Over] Cheesecake Mafia

Lurking is not a scumtell. Especially when ratty is emitting the scum equivalent of the batsignal.

That said I could grudgingly vote for Frogge. I trust the sim that he's only a 3% net positive for town if he's kept alive, and if he's dead, he can't screw up and poison Liberty or someone and we won't have to rely on coercing him to vote someone other than CAVE. I am less enthusiastic about this because I'll probably be dead tonight and then the first post will be "it would be too obvious if Ratty was scum to kill psy!"

author=pianotm
We also can't forget that Gourd said that his rumor PM told him he had been targeted by Frogge, and the psy told him he must have been mistaken, and then Gourd said there was no mention in it of him being targeted.

No this is 100% false. https://rpgmaker.net/forums/topics/21148/?post=757377#post757377
Kind of going to put you on the "probably not scum, but probably not a good idea to listen to them" pile.

[Game Over] Cheesecake Mafia

Ratty I am on to you hard because in the unlikely event you're not scum, yes you /have/ had a significant impact on the trajectory of this thread today. You got piano reviewing ten thousand slack messages. I think even Liberty was thinking about who was on slack at one point. Cap_H started naming people he'd seen around slack. We would not be having /any/ of this discussion if you hadn't brought up Slack. And by your own admission now, this conversation could've happened between odd in any number of locations with any number of people. Odd even explicitly stated it was either piano or someone who sounded like piano, not you. All of those message reasoning about slack were 100% pointless.

Same with sooz. You have convinced me of nothing, you evidence is self-contradictory, and yet we're still going on about it. sooz wrote a thesis defending herself against garbage evidence instead of actually scumhunting. It's become clear to me you either have no interest or no ability to actually construct a reasonable argument.

author=pianotm
I'm saying you should! I'm not working against town, nor do I intend to, but you have no reason to believe me, and with the evidence dumped on me at the beginning of this day phase, it's a little concerning that people aren't more suspicious.

No evidence was dumped on you. You were either hamfistedly imitated in a PM or mis-ID's by odd.

author=Marrend
@psy: If you really think I'm the one who wrote those, wouldn't it make more sense to want lynch me instead? I'm not quite sure I follow you.

I said I thought it was more likely. This is not at all the same thing as thinking you wrote it.

@YM: dude reread Ratty's first sooz post, he faults her for going after blob in one post, then for defending him in another. If you think this is at all compelling I could literally write one of these up about anyone in this thread right now

@sooz: my guess is scum-Odd has some sort of deviation from town-Odd because Odd hasn't played scum before, whereas Odd seems his normal self so far.

[Game Over] Cheesecake Mafia

@sooz Ratty is provoking you because he knows he's screwed up and just needs to create a lot of wordcount to get around it. We need people like YM, Marrend, etc, who don't have hours of time to sink into reading posts to vote with town, so the idea is to stir random garbage up on random people. His logic sounds terrible because it's not actual reasoning -- whether he's town or not (he's not), he's just decided you're arbitrarily guilty and providing garbage commentary on random posts.

@piano I'm tempted to start suspecting you because you keep wandering around asking "why does everyone suspect me??" when it's Liberty and maybe like Cap, who wrote a post yesterday proposing that every single other person in the game was mafia.

I think the Marrend PM shouldn't be taken at face value. I am more inclined to believe it actually /was/ Marrend writing because Ratty emphatically defended Marrend and after playing scumteam with Ratty I think he's incapable of distancing himself from his scumpartners in a natural way. He also randomly decided that /sooz/ was more likely than both Marrend and Gourd (and cave somehow). We will get more information with Ratty dead.

[Game Over] Cheesecake Mafia

piano I don't recall anyone mentioning you were possibly scum except Liberty, whose reasoning I've almost completely discounted at this point. Ratty is only a suspect because /I/ jumped on him because /he/ screwed up. If he had never mentioned anything about odd's message nobody would care about him at all. The PM was not attempting to implicate him at all and the only one who thought so was him, and even he discarded that train of thought. No idea why you think that message is part of some Ratty frameup.

You are correct that scum sent these messages for a purpose. The purpose for Odd's message was to allow Ratty to blame YM. The purpose for Gourd's message was this was-it-Marrend goosechase, so don't take it at face value. cave if you don't think anyone would dig up that ancient message, the other possible answer to this question is Gourd remembered and lied about the PM. And dumber things than thread research have happened.

With majority voting in place I'm rapidly losing faith this game can be closed out provided mafia kills people who are actually thinking straight. We need 7 votes to accomplish anything right now. I do not have a whole lot of confidence that Frogge, Cap_H, or Odd can come to a reasonable conclusion without instruction, and plus the 3 scum, we're below that 7 vote threshold already.

Ratty's strategy right now is apparently to inject as much garbage into the thread as possible in an attempt to confuse Cap, Frogge, etc, and I have no idea how anyone is taking that "mafia=slack!!" stuff even semi-seriously, or how anyone thinks the case against sooz is anything but made up logic to suit a predetermined end. Yes Ratty, sooz must've written that message because both odd and sooz suffer from depression, that must be it. This was truly a scum masterplan.

[Game Over] Cheesecake Mafia

sorry that was without majority voting, with majority voting it's 43.3/56.7 as we are now, 40.6/59.4 with Frogge dead, largely because the seer has a longer time to work with it seems? And losing an odd number of town is much more dangerous. This would leave me to believe that trusting Frogge's judgment is not really worth the slim gains we get from another random kill. blah.

However! If we lynch scum tonight it becomes 54.8/45.2 so let's just get Ratty.

also: killing both frogge and piano (8 town 3 scum on day 4) is 31.0/69.0. piano is definitely not worth a daykill unless we think he'd betray us.

[Game Over] Cheesecake Mafia

author=Yellow Magic
Ratty, GET GOT, that's some seriously good old-school post analysis there. One point, though, is that Sooz seems to react fairly, well, aggressively every time someone considers her scum...it'd be a bit weird for Mafia to draw that much attention to themselves like that.

Dunno, it reads like flailing to me. It's just a quote of like every soozpost in the game without a train of thought. For instance making an accusation of "you think frogge is bad but don't vote for him" at the top and then at the bottom "you never explain why you're okay with frogge gone." Like, you just quoted it Ratty. Pretty confident this is just trying to create enough noise to get attention off your screwup.


Anyway I promised I'd run the sim with and without frogge. Where we are now, with 12 players, (3 scum 1 chef 1 breadcrumb):
town: 54.3%
mafia: 44.6%
bad chef alone: 0.0%
breadcrumbed alone: 1.1%

Where we'd be tomorrow assuming we lynch Frogge and mafia nightkills a generic: With 10 players (3 scum 1 breadcrumb):
town: 42.2%
mafia: 57.8%
bad chef alone: 0.0%
breadcrumbed alone: 0.0%

Assuming neither breadcrumb nor chef betray town or at any other point, that is. Worth noting that scum did /not/ contact Frogge tonight, assuming Gourd and Odd can be trusted (yes on odd, ehhh on Gourd). I think Frogge has terrible judgment but this isn't really too much of a problem as long as he doesn't target confirmed innocents. Maybe Liberty should just hand him a list of who /not/ to target.

[Game Over] Cheesecake Mafia

I beg to differ, that pretty much all checks out to me. Aside from maybe Cave suspicion, so far he just looks cave-y to me.

[Game Over] Cheesecake Mafia

Ratty, thanks for the clarification. I'm still very confident you are scum. How confident are you that Odd's message contains an exact quote from your slack conversation? If the purpose of that PM wasn't to allow you to finger YM, what purpose does it serve? Why would scum send that to Odd?